This post speaks to a mathematical refinement in evaluating the performance of a portfolio of heat pumps — the difference between portfolio SCOP and the average of individual SCOPs across a portfolio — a refinement that may or may not be important in the real world.
There is little data on current heat pump installation costs, but it seems clear that costs have risen substantially.
Adjustments for natural gas leaks modestly inflate both the cost and benefits of heat pump conversions.
This post takes an alternative path to the conclusion that we should think of the power generated to support heat pumps as coming mostly from natural gas, at least through roughly 2040.
Over the next decade or two, while renewable generation will increase, to the extent we add significant electricity demand from heat pumps on top of our existing demand, that additional demand will mostly fire up natural gas power generators.
I feel an obligation to share my family’s mixed results since I’ve told a positive story so far.