As we consider heat pumps we need to be clear about which framework we are thinking from. This post identifies three alternative frameworks, identifies the quantitative questions relevant to each framework, and discusses the state of our understanding of those questions in each framework. Possible frameworks include: In every framework, the analysis of heat pumps …

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The slow pace is the most commonly shared concern about our building electrification strategy. We are not doing heat pump conversions nearly fast enough to hit our climate goals and it is not obvious that we can sufficiently accelerate the process.

It may be acceptable to ignore second order costs and benefits associated with heat pump conversions.

Customer choices are both consequential and especially hard to predict in the context of partial heat pump conversions.

This post speaks to a mathematical refinement in evaluating the performance of a portfolio of heat pumps — the difference between portfolio SCOP and the average of individual SCOPs across a portfolio — a refinement that may or may not be important in the real world.

There is little data on current heat pump installation costs, but it seems clear that costs have risen substantially.