Mandatory Sentences Disproportionately Impact Minorities.

Illegal drug use spreads through all racial and ethnic groups and whites are the group most commonly convicted of possession (70.9% in Fiscal 2013). The racial disproportionality at the mandatory minimum level is therefore troubling, especially because of the unique role of prosecutorial discretion in bringing and enforcing mandatory minimum charges.

The average sentence impact of repealing mandatories is likely to be modest.

In testimony before the Judiciary Committee in on June 9, 2015, witnesses offered differing predictions of the likely impact of repealing mandatories. We are left with irreducible uncertainty as to the expected change in sentence levels. It seems certain that some particular cases will be resolved differently, but hard to imagine that average sentence levels will completely collapse.

Progress already made in 2012 reduces the potential impact of repealing mandatories.

The 2012 reductions — to the school zone, the second offense penalties and the trafficking penalties — reduced the population of drug offenders in the state prison and the Houses of Correction, now at roughly 15% at both levels. Even without further legislative action, the population could drift down further, but that is not certain.