Via Brad Delong‘s blog: http://www.cepr.net/index.php/publications/reports/the-origins-and-severity-of-the-public-pension-crisis
It argues, roughly, that the current shortfall is attributable to the recent stock market plunge, that pension funds, because of their size and long-term outlook, need not and should not invest like individuals, and that the size of the shortfalls, as a share of future state receipts, is not that alarming.
Checking the long-terms and being prudent is fine, but I have no interest in destroying the village in order to save it.
Chart based arguments about future investment returns may or may not be right. That’s why there are people betting on either side of every trade in the stock market.