Incarceration in Massachusetts started to climb after crime surged.

From the early 1960s through about 1990, crime rose dramatically in Massachusetts.  Most categories of crime have fallen since the early 1990s, but remain above their level in 1965.  For example, in 2013, aggravated assaults were still at seven times their 1965 level.  The state prison population remained fairly stable at roughly 2,000 sentenced inmates until the mid 70s, but then began to rise rapidly through the 80s into the early 90s, quintupling to approximately 10,000 sentenced inmates.

While crime has fallen since the early 90s, the state prison population has remained elevated. The chart above shows crime and incarceration indexed to 1965 levels. The data underlying the chart above appear below. Note that Massachusetts has closely paralleled the national trends both as to crime and as to incarceration.

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Massachusetts Population, Major Reported Crimes and State Prison Inmates: 1965-2013

	Population	Murder	Rape	Robbery	Assault	Burglary	Larceny	MV Theft	Inmates (1/1)
1965	5,348,000	129	290	2,139	2,712	29,655	49,997	28,533	2004
1966	5,383,000	128	344	2,474	3,255	33,326	53,244	29,206	1877
1967	5,421,000	154	411	2,818	3,536	36,621	54,837	36,180	1603
1968	5,437,000	188	518	4,039	4,171	47,210	66,823	43,853	1730
1969	5,467,000	191	592	4,955	4,534	56,450	76,501	46,950	1806
1970	5,689,170	197	684	5,658	5,003	64,523	87,114	49,955	1916
1971	5,758,000	220	715	8,069	6,313	77,145	101,161	56,709	1978
1972	5,787,000	215	784	8,840	7,247	71,894	92,425	56,272
1973	5,818,000	256	949	10,586	8,684	77,395	100,605	64,556	1970
1974	5,800,000	256	907	12,317	9,065	89,891	120,572	79,203	2096
1975	5,828,000	242	1,121	13,229	11,201	99,802	137,058	91,563	2140
1976	5,809,000	194	1,028	10,466	11,502	96,554	142,135	76,257	2290
1977	5,782,000	178	1,203	9,822	13,390	88,594	133,642	65,922	2681
1978	5,774,000	216	1,307	9,947	15,203	87,482	131,519	63,259	2750
1979	5,769,000	212	1,428	11,724	17,286	92,570	152,135	66,051	2636
1980	5,728,288	232	1,562	13,492	19,158	99,697	153,849	60,241	2754
1981	5,770,000	210	1,580	15,633	18,850	95,080	147,691	57,657	3067
1982	5,781,000	219	1,464	12,359	18,989	82,212	146,933	55,995	3690
1983	5,767,000	203	1,495	12,023	19,543	72,291	133,883	49,533	4334
1984	5,798,000	211	1,627	10,122	18,402	63,756	123,214	48,705	4482
1985	5,822,000	202	1,734	10,974	18,424	65,231	130,088	50,346	4940
1986	5,832,000	208	1,731	11,239	19,298	62,455	127,668	52,866	5390
1987	5,855,000	173	1,868	10,379	20,640	62,056	127,939	54,110	5636
1988	5,871,000	208	1,876	10,352	23,940	62,307	141,933	52,399	6265
1989	5,913,000	254	1,881	11,980	25,797	63,004	146,925	53,851	6757
1990	6,016,425	243	2,030	13,062	28,965	66,942	151,933	55,567	7553
1991	5,996,000	249	1,926	11,669	30,294	69,977	149,930	55,083	8265
1992	5,998,000	214	2,166	11,059	33,288	64,318	141,610	47,416	9075
1993	6,012,000	233	2,006	10,563	35,591	60,220	136,548	49,063	9851
1994	6,041,000	214	1,825	10,160	30,550	53,222	129,962	42,348	9952
1995	6,074,000	217	1,759	9,137	30,626	49,669	135,586	36,716	9854
1996	6,092,000	157	1,767	7,778	29,420	42,896	119,562	32,178	9736
1997	6,118,000	119	1,647	6,676	30,969	40,491	115,494	29,452	10119
1998	6,147,000	124	1,687	5,938	30,443	37,333	109,275	26,403	10218
1999	6,175,000	122	1,663	5,931	26,307	32,964	108,845	25,628	11158
2000	6,349,097	125	1,696	5,815	22,594	30,600	105,425	25,876	10712
2001	6,379,304	145	1,856	6,476	22,110	32,430	106,821	27,828	10095
2002	6,427,801	173	1,777	7,169	22,018	33,243	107,922	26,588	9610
2003	6,420,357	140	1,848	8,011	20,378	34,963	104,069	25,511	9223
2004	6,416,505	169	1,799	7,467	20,002	34,469	101,303	22,053	9060
2005	6,433,367	178	1,751	7,837	19,878	34,728	98,079	18,920	8979
2006	6,437,193	186	1,742	8,047	18,800	35,181	100,771	17,961	9405
2007	6,449,755	184	1,634	7,006	19,008	35,662	103,592	14,992	9778
2008	6,497,967	167	1,736	7,069	20,202	36,094	107,128	12,737	10132
2009	6,593,587	173	1,734	7,467	21,129	34,515	106,799	11,864	10342
2010	6,547,629	210	1,745	6,874	21,724	37,767	104,685	11,453	10259
2011	6,587,536	185	1,628	6,768	19,638	36,533	101,471	10,786	10222
2012	6,646,144	121	1,650	6,555	18,721	34,635	99,453	9,237	10491
2013	6,692,824	137	2,089	6,706	18,106	30,735	97,428	9,122	10148

Sources: Uniform Crime Reports furnished by the Massachusetts State Police Crime Reporting Unit.  Reports of the Massachusetts Department of Corrections online (and from the State Library). The uniform crime reports include only aggravated assaults defined as follows: “Aggravated assault—An unlawful attack by one person upon another for the purpose of inflicting severe or aggravated bodily injury. This type of assault usually is accompanied by the use of a weapon or by means likely to produce death or great bodily harm. Simple assaults are excluded.”