A critical question in all transportation planning is how much growth we should expect in different areas. Future needs for transportation capacity depend on the future number and location of jobs and residences.

The Central Transportation Planning Staff is engaged in constant ongoing efforts to identify the best estimates of both job and housing growth in cooperation with the Metropolitan Area Planning Council.

In the context of conversations about the Rail Vision Study, I requested their latest information for my district and adjoining high development areas in Allston.

As the transmittal letter notes — these projections are not necessarily the projections that will be used for planning in the I-90 interchange project. The discussion is ongoing about development expectations associated with that project and the discussion may lead to an upwards revision of estimates in that area.

Summary Findings

Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) Land Use Assumptions for Destination 2040 Long Range Plan from MAPC, Fall 2018.

Geography2016 Employment2016 Households2016 Population2040 Employment2040 Households2040 Population2040 Employment
Growth		2040 Households
Growth		2040 Population
Growth
WB Senate District180,70081,500165,100204,700101,200197,40013%24%20%
Allston12,8006,50014,90018,600102,0020,40045%57%37%
Boston Area1,925,4001,313,1003,248,9002,084,7001,582,6003,704,5008%21%14%

The summary conclusion is that especially Allston but also many other parts of Boston and a few pockets in Belmont and Watertown are looking at significant growth.

Details

Map of Transit Analysis Zones

Transit Analysis Zones in and around the Second Suffolk and Middlesex District

The CTPS uses Transit Analysis Zones to analyze regional traffic patterns. Expected growth — based on zoning, known projects and trends — is mapped at this level.

Projections by TAZ

The projections for individual transit analysis zones appear below. I’d welcome observations about particular areas.

The source is the “Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) Land Use Assumptions for Destination 2040 Long Range Plan from MAPC, Fall 2018.”

TAZMUNICIPALITYGeography2016 Total Employment2016 Households2016 Population2040 Employment2040 Households2040 Population2040 Employment
Growth		2040 Households
Growth		2040 Population
Growth
230BOSTON,MAAllston591756 1,588 591916 1,766 0%21%11%
238BOSTON,MAAllston635--81820042129%0%0%
239BOSTON,MAAllston 2,760 305616 2,881 4769294%56%51%
240BOSTON,MAAllston 2,034 732 1,789 2,076 861 2,026 2%18%13%
241BOSTON,MAAllston40314231169217039272%20%26%
242BOSTON,MAAllston883603 1,591 893719 1,734 1%19%9%
243BOSTON,MAAllston329944 2,485 331 1,126 2,582 0%19%4%
244BOSTON,MAAllston 1,205 1,087 1,881 2,722 1,752 2,808 126%61%49%
245BOSTON,MAAllston 1,472 55147 2,048 30561239%455%316%
246BOSTON,MAAllston587-- 3,505 656 1,137 497%0%0%
247BOSTON,MAAllston773487 1,153 786829 1,669 2%70%45%
248BOSTON,MAAllston817449 1,151 886833 1,642 8%86%43%
249BOSTON,MAAllston315962 2,195 340 1,389 2,652 8%44%21%
TotalAllston 12,804 6,522 14,907 18,568 10,232 20,370 45%57%37%
26BOSTON,MA2D-SM911923 1,806 914 1,125 2,158 0%22%19%
84BOSTON,MA2D-SM247 1,067 1,807 248 1,272 2,136 0%19%18%
85BOSTON,MA2D-SM400 1,303 2,154 401 1,554 2,576 0%19%20%
86BOSTON,MA2D-SM990 1,133 1,968 1,000 1,352 2,422 1%19%23%
87BOSTON,MA2D-SM7803926308034748313%21%32%
88BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,383 260510 1,406 3106662%19%31%
89BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,141 102244 1,140 1223640%20%49%
90BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,557 84171 2,575 1002331%19%36%
91BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,014 182372 1,021 2185091%20%37%
92BOSTON,MA2D-SM528 1,239 2,027 530 1,477 2,447 0%19%21%
93BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,829 111255 1,854 1393531%25%38%
94BOSTON,MA2D-SM6993305857013927340%19%25%
95BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,333 153284 2,343 1833780%20%33%
96BOSTON,MA2D-SM 3,392 -- 3,409 --1%0%0%
97BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,871 1234 1,942 14514%17%50%
99BOSTON,MA2D-SM 3,523 -- 3,739 --6%0%0%
102BOSTON,MA2D-SM 3,027 189367 4,904 890 1,480 62%371%303%
103BOSTON,MA2D-SM90168119 1,720 830 1,428 91%1121%1100%
104BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,620 174304 2,627 2504450%44%46%
105BOSTON,MA2D-SM 3,301 276536 3,198 794 1,401 -3%188%161%
106BOSTON,MA2D-SM 9,840 876 1,455 10,433 1,020 1,741 6%16%20%
107BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,716 2,065 3,377 1,724 2,463 3,970 0%19%18%
108BOSTON,MA2D-SM93124 1,940 24108%0%0%
109BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,978 565 1,094 2,833 813 1,529 -5%44%40%
110BOSTON,MA2D-SM292 1,084 2,425 294 1,293 2,779 1%19%15%
111BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,728 490886 2,906 732 1,295 7%49%46%
207BOSTON,MA2D-SM397 1,013 2,476 400 1,208 2,804 1%19%13%
208BOSTON,MA2D-SM468 1,072 2,206 488 1,256 2,414 4%17%9%
209BOSTON,MA2D-SM793865 1,876 897 1,033 2,020 13%19%8%
210BOSTON,MA2D-SM854410703 1,368 48985160%19%21%
211BOSTON,MA2D-SM959797 1,532 1,225 925 1,762 28%16%15%
212BOSTON,MA2D-SM131777 1,889 130927 2,041 0%19%8%
213BOSTON,MA2D-SM352 1,110 2,419 396 1,337 2,689 13%20%11%
214BOSTON,MA2D-SM3863728203884529271%22%13%
215BOSTON,MA2D-SM89846 1,906 89 1,010 1,914 0%19%0%
216BOSTON,MA2D-SM435709 1,568 437845 1,589 1%19%1%
217BOSTON,MA2D-SM222987 1,653 227 1,150 1,916 2%17%16%
218BOSTON,MA2D-SM48 1,489 2,832 49 1,776 3,039 2%19%7%
219BOSTON,MA2D-SM91987 1,635 91 1,178 1,917 0%19%17%
220BOSTON,MA2D-SM207 2,183 4,059 209 2,563 4,453 1%17%10%
221BOSTON,MA2D-SM139931 1,721 144 1,207 2,143 4%30%25%
222BOSTON,MA2D-SM7401823747422835850%55%56%
223BOSTON,MA2D-SM 3,758 388853 6,625 792 1,462 76%104%71%
224BOSTON,MA2D-SM553639 1,575 560750 1,708 1%17%8%
225BOSTON,MA2D-SM226836 1,865 228998 2,054 1%19%10%
226BOSTON,MA2D-SM491516 1,148 494598 1,240 1%16%8%
227BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,050 722 1,525 1,061 861 1,752 1%19%15%
228BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,200 -- 2,260 --3%0%0%
229BOSTON,MA2D-SM627953 2,006 633 1,266 2,602 1%33%30%
231BOSTON,MA2D-SM153 1,200 2,194 155 1,432 2,435 1%19%11%
232BOSTON,MA2D-SM424 1,616 2,832 443 1,887 3,124 5%17%10%
233BOSTON,MA2D-SM435 1,212 2,421 438 1,414 2,715 1%17%12%
234BOSTON,MA2D-SM143741 1,681 145884 1,966 2%19%17%
235BOSTON,MA2D-SM331828 1,805 334988 1,957 1%19%8%
236BOSTON,MA2D-SM902667 1,401 906796 1,530 0%19%9%
237BOSTON,MA2D-SM581737 1,350 582879 1,654 0%19%23%
250BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,281 508940 1,284 604 1,115 0%19%19%
251BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,341 25 2,294 220484-2%10900%9580%
252BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,279 -- 1,290 --1%0%0%
253BOSTON,MA2D-SM 3,228 3495 3,244 401210%18%27%
254BOSTON,MA2D-SM89586184 1,580 10227077%19%47%
255BOSTON,MA2D-SM70650968285913017%18%35%
256BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,351 466847 1,426 556 1,110 6%19%31%
257BOSTON,MA2D-SM289677 1,222 292805 1,510 1%19%24%
258BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,975 325589 3,305 38880411%19%37%
259BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,727 792 1,361 2,069 942 1,666 20%19%22%
260BOSTON,MA2D-SM339493894 1,132 576 1,132 234%17%27%
261BOSTON,MA2D-SM163734 1,340 171853 1,540 5%16%15%
262BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,360 750 1,421 2,601 973 1,785 10%30%26%
263BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,336 -- 2,336 --0%0%0%
264BOSTON,MA2D-SM373442803682755 1,387 83%71%73%
265BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,268 568 1,103 2,160 1,237 2,255 70%118%104%
266BOSTON,MA2D-SM143 1,485 2,338 144 1,740 2,795 1%17%20%
267BOSTON,MA2D-SM633522966635622 1,249 0%19%29%
268BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,902 1,026 1,797 2,162 1,368 2,258 14%33%26%
269BOSTON,MA2D-SM652 1,176 1,968 686 1,431 2,320 5%22%18%
270BOSTON,MA2D-SM271 1,080 1,811 273 1,563 2,516 1%45%39%
271BOSTON,MA2D-SM102 1,308 2,121 104 1,560 2,500 2%19%18%
272BOSTON,MA2D-SM58326695583898210%19%18%
273BOSTON,MA2D-SM530 1,153 2,388 536 1,368 2,771 1%19%16%
274BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,865 98211 1,984 1172816%19%33%
275BOSTON,MA2D-SM2443685725520 1,061 2%19%24%
276BOSTON,MA2D-SM5743156825803768011%19%17%
277BOSTON,MA2D-SM 4,587 353638 4,879 787 1,406 6%123%120%
278BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,219 411 2,293 4163%0%45%
279BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,132 129203 1,482 15425631%19%26%
280BOSTON,MA2D-SM 9,756 -- 14,373 8522747%0%0%
281BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,917 -- 2,179 --14%0%0%
282BOSTON,MA2D-SM 1,039 215448 1,205 40679116%89%77%
283BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,330 35 2,345 361%0%20%
284BOSTON,MA2D-SM 2,625 114309 3,002 19046514%67%50%
285BOSTON,MA2D-SM 3,298 136223 3,556 1623258%19%46%
286BOSTON,MA2D-SM 11,685 -- 13,755 --18%0%0%
287BOSTON,MA2D-SM 12,872 -- 12,925 --0%0%0%
288BOSTON,MA2D-SM579-- 1,749 --202%0%0%
289BOSTON,MA2D-SM204425 1,076 967568 1,335 374%34%24%
908BELMONT,MA2D-SM176 1,303 3,032 178 1,509 3,287 1%16%8%
909BELMONT,MA2D-SM568688 1,853 564797 2,053 -1%16%11%
910BELMONT,MA2D-SM630465 1,226 636524 1,268 1%13%3%
911BELMONT,MA2D-SM389 1,161 2,848 391 1,343 3,199 1%16%12%
912BELMONT,MA2D-SM340503 1,352 343582 1,787 1%16%32%
913BELMONT,MA2D-SM458 1,111 2,600 521 1,277 2,823 14%15%9%
914BELMONT,MA2D-SM222 1,132 2,601 224 1,311 2,797 1%16%8%
915BELMONT,MA2D-SM174761 1,795 175865 1,806 0%14%1%
916BELMONT,MA2D-SM144 1,043 2,424 145 1,221 2,700 1%17%11%
917BELMONT,MA2D-SM300668 1,762 316774 1,920 5%16%9%
918BELMONT,MA2D-SM 1,313 455 1,391 1,322 527 1,621 1%16%17%
919BELMONT,MA2D-SM366468 1,325 367542 1,442 0%16%9%
920BELMONT,MA2D-SM 2,011 300670 2,173 3477248%16%8%
921BELMONT,MA2D-SM2621454562651685971%16%31%
922WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 3,379 787 1,726 3,450 911 1,901 2%16%10%
923WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 1,563 495 1,000 1,734 574 1,176 11%16%18%
924WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 2,569 491988 2,346 695 1,339 -9%42%36%
925WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM790616 1,365 827753 1,620 5%22%19%
926WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM4703066504743527741%15%19%
927WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 1,929 1,289 2,761 1,951 1,493 3,133 1%16%13%
928WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 1,430 999 2,162 1,788 1,157 2,389 25%16%10%
929WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM236 1,494 3,083 236 1,731 3,485 0%16%13%
930WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM442 1,663 3,606 444 1,926 3,953 1%16%10%
931WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM186661 1,573 187766 1,755 1%16%12%
932WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM240766 1,596 242887 1,875 1%16%17%
933WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM293825 1,527 295956 1,835 1%16%20%
934WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 1,767 236508 1,778 2736481%16%28%
935WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 1,463 1,034 2,126 1,465 1,198 2,384 0%16%12%
936WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM109 1,536 3,164 110 1,780 3,470 1%16%10%
937WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM159927 2,020 160 1,074 2,112 1%16%5%
938WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM455 1,431 3,161 459 1,658 3,293 1%16%4%
939WATERTOWN,MA2D-SM 1,815 667 1,329 1,830 701 1,511 1%5%14%
Total2D-SM 180,673 81,522 165,066 204,741 101,198 197,379 13%24%20%

Transmittal from Central Transportation Planning Staff

Hello Senator Brownsberger,

Per your request last week, I have attached a spreadsheet summarizing the CTPS / MAPC demographic forecasting assumptions by transportation analysis zone (TAZ), Senate district, Allston area, and the MPO region.

This information will be used as inputs into our travel demand model for the Boston Region MPO planning process and for Rail Vision project.

The Allston I-90 FEIR will use a modified version of this data set, which will include more growth in the Allston area associated with the Harvard Development. 

The Allston I-90 FEIR demographic assumptions are still being worked on.

There are four tabs in the spreadsheet summarizing employment, households, and population for 2016 and 2040.

  • A map showing the TAZs that were identified for your district
  • A map of the MPO area
  • An inventory of demographic data by TAZ
  • A summary

Link to Full Spreadheet

Senate_District2nd_SuffMidd_Demographic DataDownload

Published by Will Brownsberger

Will Brownsberger is State Senator from the Second Suffolk and Middlesex District.

3 replies on “Growth Expectations”

  1. I propose two topics for discussion:
    1. That vehicles used for so-called, “ride-sharing,” purposes should be numbered on the sides and back to allow the pedestrians, cyclists and other drivers to give feedback. (They should also have commercial plates and a, “How’s my driving,” bumper sticker.)

    2. Ride-share drivers drivers who get two moving violations are banned from performing their services in the state.

    Riders can rate the driver, drivers can rate their passengers but, other motorists, cyclists and pedestrians have no practical means of identifying, rating or reporting hazardous behaviors of Uber and Lyft drivers (short of dialing 911).

    This is important because, I regularly see, and am affected by, mobile app-facilitated taxis- ride hails: standing in no-stopping zones, double parked, standing in and blocking the bike lane, standing in driveways, blocking sidewalks and making assorted moving violations, mostly, illegal u-turns. It mustn’t be left soley to the passenger/customer to report bad drivers because, they can be oblivious to the experience of people outside of the vehicle and may have a conflict of interest.

    While if implemented, the first topic can be useful for the companies and to know how their drivers are behaving and, should share that data with the Commonwealth, who can employ appropriate measures, the second has teeth and immediate effect.

    Thank you

    1. Thanks, Fred. These are good thoughts.

      Regarding the first. This was pretty heavily argued during the last round of Uber legislation. We do require some identification, but not commercial plates, which require different and more expensive insurance. I’ll try to post the regs on this.

      On the second issue, very fair point. Part of the response is moving toward designated pick-up zones as the Mayor of Boston is doing. Let me check on the moving violation rules.

    2. Per 220 CMR 274.08 (1), the regulations require that a decal identifying the TNC company is placed on the front and back panels of a vehicle at all times while the vehicle is in service. The decal or must be reflective, illuminative or otherwise visible at night or in low-light environments. This regulation, combined with a vehicles unique license plate number should ensure that every vehicle is individually identifiable from the front or back.

      Regarding moving violations, 220 CMR 274.21 prohibits a driver from offering TNC services if they have more than four traffic violations in a three year period or one major traffic violation in a three year period. Major traffic violations are defined in 211 CMR 134.00 Appendix A.

      Andrew Bettinelli
      Chief of Staff
      Office of Senator William N. Brownsberger

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